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EFI and SOT 2 metre temperature over Extended range

Base Time: Mon 08 Mar 2021 00 UTC T+168 Valid time: Mon 08 Mar 2021 00 UTC - Mon 15 Mar 2021 00 UTC

EFI index (shading) provides specialized forecast guidance for anomalous or extreme weather events by comparing the ENS forecast with the model climate for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time.
The SOT index complements EFI by providing information about how extreme an extreme event might be.

Detailed description of Extended range Extreme forecast index (EFI) and Shift of tails (SOT) products can be found in ECMWF Forecast User Guide.

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Improving skill of ensemble forecasts at day 5

Forecast performance in 2020

The year 2020 continued the upward trend of global forecast performance, driven by regular updates of the Integrated Forecasting System. Headline scores show positive effects in medium-range as well as extended-range forecasts.

8 March 2021

Digital twin graphic

Presenting Destination Earth: a digital replica of our planet

ECMWF will present EU plans on 5 March to develop a high-precision digital model of our planet. The purpose is to create a digital twin of the Earth that will make it possible to explore various natural processes and human activities.

1 March 2021

Earth system diagram

Fact sheet: Earth system modelling at ECMWF

ECMWF’s Earth system model aims to represent interactions between as many Earth system components as required, at the necessary level of complexity and as initialised by data assimilation, to achieve the Centre’s forecasting goals.

8 March 2021

Forecast charts and data

We provide current forecasts, climate reanalyses and specific datasets. These are available via the web, point-to-point dissemination, data servers and broadcasting.


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Do you use ECMWF products and services? Come and share your experiences at our annual user meeting #UEF2021, taking place virtually 1-4 June.


Forecasts, analyses, climate re-analyses, reforecasts and multi-model data are available from our archive (MARS) or via dedicated data servers or via point-to-point dissemination.

Accessing forecasts

Researchers, WMO members, commercial users and satellite data providers can gain access to ECMWF forecast products under one of our various license agreement types.

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Serving meteorology

International collaboration is fundamental to the work of ECMWF, working with the EU and the meteorological community at large, including the World Meteorological Organization, space agencies, and scientists around the world.