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Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Author

Peter Düben

Tim Palmer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17059-model-uncertainty-quantification-using-ultra-efficient-inexact-hardware.pdf

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Author

N. Gagnon

P.L. Houtekamer

X.-X. Deng

A. Erfani

M. Charron

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17062-review-perturbation-methods-meteorological-service-canada-msc-global-ensemble-prediction.pdf

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Author

Christina Klasa

Heini Wernli

Andre Walser

Marco Arpagaus

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17071-case-study-based-evaluation-stochastic-physics-effects-high-resolution-ensemble-cosmo-e.pdf

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Author

Chih-Hsin Li

Jing-Shan Hong

Xing-Qin Fang

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17072-evaluation-skebs-impact-wrf-based-mesoscale-ensemble-prediction-system.pdf

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Author

Ekaterina Machulskaya

Richard Keane

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17073-representation-model-error-using-stochastic-equation-flow-dependent-spatial-and-temporal.pdf

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Author

Dave MacLeod

Hannah Cloke

Florian Pappenberger

Antje Weisheimer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17074-perturbing-hydrology-parameters-seasonal-forecasts.pdf

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Author

Husain Najafi

Ali Bavani

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17075-bayesian-framework-design-quantifying-model-uncertainty-univariate-probabilistic-mixture-model.pdf

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

Author

Robert Plant

S.R.A. Dey

N.M. Roberts

S. Migliorini

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17076-assessing-spatial-precipitation-uncertainties-convective-scale-ensemble.pdf

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Author

Nigel Roberts

Seonaid Dey

Giovanni Leoncini

Robert Plant

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17078-spatial-behaviour-and-evaluation-convection-permitting-ensemble.pdf

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

Author

Tobias Selz

George Craig

Lotte Bierdel

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17079-upscale-impact-diabatic-processes-convective-near-hemispheric-scale.pdf

New developments in the diagnosis and verification of high-impact weather forecasts

Author

Mark Rodwell

Laura Ferranti

Thomas Haiden

L. Magnusson

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15255-new-developments-diagnosis-and-verification-high-impact-weather-forecasts.pdf

The modelling infrastructure of the Integrated Forecasting System: Recent advances and future challenges

Author

Willem Deconinck

M. Hamrud

S. Malardel

G. Mozdzynski

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15259-modelling-infrastructure-integrated-forecasting-system-recent-advances-and-future-challenges.pdf

Understanding the ECMWF winter surface temperature biases over Antarctica

Author

Emanuel Dutra

Irina Sandu

Gianpaolo Balsamo

Anton Beljaars

Etienne Vignon

E. Brun

Helene Freville

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15262-understanding-ecmwf-winter-surface-temperature-biases-over-antarctica.pdf

Convectively coupled Kelvin Waves: From linear theory to global models

Author

M. Herman

Z. Fuchs

D. Raymond

Peter Bechtold

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15273-convectively-coupled-kelvin-waves-linear-theory-global-models.pdf

Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including 2014-2015 upgrades

Author

Thomas Haiden

Martin Janousek

Peter Bauer

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15275-evaluation-ecmwf-forecasts-including-2014-2015-upgrades.pdf

Significance of changes in medium-range forecast scores

Author

Alan Geer

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15287-significance-changes-medium-range-forecast-scores.pdf

Numerical sensitivity of the ECMWF model to Semi-Lagrangian departure point iterations

Author

Michail Diamantakis

L. Magnusson

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15302-numerical-sensitivity-ecmwf-model-semi-lagrangian-departure-point-iterations.pdf

Diagnosis of northern hemispheric regime behaviour during winter 2013/14

Author

Mark Rodwell

Laura Ferranti

L. Magnusson

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15305-diagnosis-northern-hemispheric-regime-behaviour-during-winter-201314.pdf

A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble

Author

N. Zagar

Roberto Buizza

J. Tribbia

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15309-three-dimensional-multivariate-modal-analysis-atmospheric-predictability-application-ecmwf.pdf

A lightning parameterization for the ECMWF model

Author

Philippe Lopez

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15313-lightning-parameterization-ecmwf-model.pdf

Comparison of model land skin temperature with remotely sensed estimates and assessment of surface-atmosphere coupling

Author

I.F. Trigo

Souhail Boussetta

P. Viterbo

Gianpaolo Balsamo

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15318-comparison-model-land-skin-temperature-remotely-sensed-estimates-and-assessment-surface.pdf

How rare is the Draupner wave event?

Author

Peter Janssen

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15321-how-rare-draupner-wave-event.pdf

A biogenic C02 flux adjustment scheme for the mitigation of large-scale biases in global atmospheric CO2 analyses and forecasts

Author

Anna Agusti-Panareda

Sebastien Massart

F. Chevallier

Gianpaolo Balsamo

Souhail Boussetta

Emanuel Dutra

Anton Beljaars

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15374-biogenic-c02-flux-adjustment-scheme-mitigation-large-scale-biases-global-atmospheric-co2.pdf

Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including 2014-2015 upgrades

Author

Thomas Haiden

F. Prates

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

14691-evaluation-ecmwf-forecasts-including-2014-2015-upgrades.pdf

Search ECMWF publications

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Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

New developments in the diagnosis and verification of high-impact weather forecasts

The modelling infrastructure of the Integrated Forecasting System: Recent advances and future challenges

Understanding the ECMWF winter surface temperature biases over Antarctica

Convectively coupled Kelvin Waves: From linear theory to global models

Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including 2014-2015 upgrades

Significance of changes in medium-range forecast scores

Numerical sensitivity of the ECMWF model to Semi-Lagrangian departure point iterations

Diagnosis of northern hemispheric regime behaviour during winter 2013/14

A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble

A lightning parameterization for the ECMWF model

Comparison of model land skin temperature with remotely sensed estimates and assessment of surface-atmosphere coupling

How rare is the Draupner wave event?

A biogenic C02 flux adjustment scheme for the mitigation of large-scale biases in global atmospheric CO2 analyses and forecasts

Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including 2014-2015 upgrades

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