Comparison of scores of model cycle 38r2 (combination of research experiments and the current e-suite) and cycle 38r1 (the current operational model) verified by the respective analyses or radiosonde observations at 00UTC for combined periods from 1 January 2012 to 31 March 2012 and from 1 June 2012 to 23 April 2013.
| Anomaly Correlation | RMS Error | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe |
against analysis |
Relative humidity | 300hPa | ||
| 700hPa | |||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Wind | 200hPa | ||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Wind | 200hPa | ||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Northern hemisphere extra-tropics | against analysis | 10m wind over ocean | |||
| Ocean wave period | |||||
| Ocean wave height | |||||
| Relative humidity | 300hPa | ||||
| 700hPa | |||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Wind | 200hPa | ||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Wind | 200hPa | ||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Southern hemisphere extra-tropics | against analysis | 10m wind over ocean | |||
| Ocean wave period | |||||
| Ocean wave height | |||||
| Relative humidity | 300hPa | ||||
| 700hPa | |||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Wind | 200hPa | ||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Wind | 200hPa | ||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Tropics | against analysis | 10m wind over ocean | |||
| Ocean wave period | |||||
| Ocean wave height | |||||
| Relative humidity | 300hPa | ||||
| 700hPa | |||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Wind | 200hPa | ||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
| 500hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | |||||
| 1000hPa | |||||
| Wind | 200hPa | ||||
| 850hPa |
Score card provides a quick visual overview over the performance of the experiment scores compared to control. It is a simplified summary of verify error plots of various domains, scores, parameters etc.
Each error plot is converted into a sequence of symbols (e.g. ) where each symbol indicates for given time step whether or not the experiment is significantly better or worse than the control.
Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)
Cy38r2 far better than Cy38r1 statistically significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
Cy38r2 better than Cy38r1 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
Cy38r2 better than Cy38r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
not really any difference between Cy38r2 and Cy38r1
Cy38r2 worse than Cy38r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
Cy38r2 worse than Cy38r1 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
Cy38r2 far worse than Cy38r1 statistically significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)
Statistical significance evaluated by paired t-test for 95% significance level.