Between 20 and 24 June 2011, a workshop was held at ECMWF on 'Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Weather and Climate Prediction'. The workshop was co-sponsored by WMO/WGNE, WMO/THORPEX, WCRP.
The workshop attracted almost 100 participants, from Europe and other parts of the world, such as Japan, North and South America and Australia.
Description
There are a number of techniques to represent model uncertainty in ensemble forecasts. These range from the multi-model techniques which feature prominently in IPCC assessment reports, to the stochastic parametrizations pioneered at ECMWF and widely used at weather forecast centres around the world. A key outcome of the meeting was that the stochastic parametrization paradigm needs further development at the process level, and hence needs to be incorporated as part of general parametrization development. Key tools will include sophisticated analyses of observational datasets, output from cloud resolving models, and analyses from objective data assimilation. Data assimilation techniques themselves will benefit from better representations of model uncertainty.
Programme
Presentations
| Monday 20 June | |
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Welcome Erland Källén (ECMWF) |
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Overview Tim Palmer (ECMWF) |
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Uncertainty in the representation of key processes |
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Representing convection in models: How stochastic does it need to be? Christian Jakob (Monash) |
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Energy and enstrophy cascades in numerical models John Thuburn (University of Exeter) |
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Radiation fast physics with slow consequences in an uncertain atmosphere Robert Pincus (University of Colorado) |
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Uncertainty and complexity in cloud microphysics Axel Seifert (DWD) |
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Some numerical issues in stochastic integration Cecile Penland (NOAA) |
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| Tuesday 21 June | |
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Dealing with ocean model uncertainty in climate prediction Laure Zanna (Oxford) |
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Uncertainty in representation of land surface processes: soil hydrology and river runoff Hannah Cloke (King’s College) |
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Model uncertainty from a mathematical perspective |
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Improving complex models, stochastic parameterization, and information theory Andy Majda (Courant) |
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Data-based stochastic subgrid-scale modelling Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter) |
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Multi model ensembles |
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Multimodels on seasonal to multi-decadal time-scales: Potential and limitations Andreas Weigel (MeteoSwiss) |
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Multi-parametrisation |
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The use of multiple parameterizations in ensembles Peter Houtekamer (Canada) |
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Representing model uncertainty using multi-parametrisation methods Laurent Descamps (Météo France) |
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Perturbed parameters |
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Assessing perturbed parameter ensembles as a tool for sampling model uncertainties and making climate projections James Murphy (Met Office) |
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Inference from perturbed parameter ensemble experiments Jonty Rougier (Bristol) |
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Stochastic parametrisation |
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Stochastic tendency perturbations for NWP ensembles Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF) |
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Tracking down the origin of NWP model uncertainty : coarse-graining studies and the efficacy of various stochastic parametrizations Glenn Shutts (Met Office) |
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| Wednesday 22 June | |
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Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection Bob Plant (University of Reading) |
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Comparison of model-uncertainty schemes across a range of scales Judith Berner (NCAR) |
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Data assimilation using models with stochastic parameterizations Tim Del Sole (COLA) |
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Representing deep convective organization in a high resolution NWP LAM model using cellular automata Lisa Bengtsson-Sedlar (SMHI) |
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Superparametrisation |
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Variability Across Time Scales in a Super-Parameterized GCM Dave Randall (CSU) |
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Post-processing issues |
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Addressing model uncertainty through statistical post-processing Tom Hamill (NOAA) |
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Representation of model uncertainty in data assimilation |
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Estimating model error in 4D-Var Yannick Tremolet (ECMWF) |
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Model uncertainty in ensemble data assimilation Massimo Bonavita (ECMWF) |
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Evaluating methods for representing model error using ensemble data assimilation Jeff Whitaker (NOAA) |
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Verification of methods for representing uncertainty |
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Assessing representations of model uncertainty in seasonal forecast ensembles Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF) |
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Local diagnostics to measure the efficiency of the ensemble in representing the error space Istvan Szunyogh (Texas A&M) |
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Working groups
Posters
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Stochastic parametrisation and model uncertainty in the Lorenz '96 System Hannah Arnold |
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Equilibrium distribution of subgrid convection: A grand canonic ensemble approach Jian-Wen Bao |
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Treatment of the error due to unresolved scales in sequential data assimilation Alberto Carrassi |
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Parameterization of atmospheric convection with conditional Markov chains Jesse Dorrestijn |
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Estimation and value of ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts Tony Eckel |
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Perturbations of surface parameters or how to stumble upon chaos... again Normand Gagnon |
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Representing convection in climate models with unified schemes Cathy Hohenegger |
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Laborious linkage between moist physics parameterization and observations : spin-down problem in an NWP system Takuya Komori |
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Atmospheric blocking in numerical weather and climate prediction models Mio Matsueda |
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Inclusion of model uncertainty in the U.S. Navy's Global Ensemble System Carolyn Reynolds |
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Parameter estimation of a convective scheme using ensemble transform Kalman filter Juan Jose Ruiz |
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Development and evaluation of stochastic physics schemes in the Unified Model - Preliminary results Claudio Sanchez |
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Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts Stefan Siegert |
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Development of parameterizations for simulating moist convective boundary layers: an EDMF stochastic approach Joao Teixeira |
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New schemes to perturb near-surface variables in MOGREPS Warren Tennant |
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A seamless approach to assessing uncertainties of climate models in predictions of severe extratropical windstorms Tomasz Trzeciak |
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Correction of model errors using Model Output Statistics Stéphane Vannitsem |
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Representation of model uncertainty in ocean data assimilation for seasonal prediction in the POAMA system Yonghong Yin |
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Impact of observation-optimized model parameters on decadal predictions Shaoqing Zhang |
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Proceedings
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Incorporating flow-dependent model errors in local ensemble transform Kalman filter: role of stochastic back-scatter Jaison Ambadan (MPI) |
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A stochastic parameterization of deep convection organisation using cellular automata Lisa Bengtsson-Sedlar (SMHI) |
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Uncertainty prediction across a range of scales: from short-range weather forecasting to climate uncertainty Judith Berner (NCAR) |
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Impact and diagnosis of model error in the ECMWF ensemble of data assimilations Massimo Bonavita (ECMWF) |
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Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme Hannah Cloke (King’s College) |
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State and parameter estimation in stochastic dynamical models Tim Del Sole (COLA) |
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Representing model uncertainty using the multiparametrization method Laurent Descamps (Météo France) |
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Addressing model uncertainty through statistical post-processing using forecasts Tom Hamill (NOAA) |
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|
The use of multiple parametrizations in ensembles Peter Houtekamer (Canada) |
|
|
Representation convection in models: How stochastic does it need to be? Christian Jakob (Monash) |
|
|
Cluster-weighted stochastic subgrid-scale modelling Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter) |
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|
Improving complex models through stochastic parametrization and information theory Andy Majda (Courant) |
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Perturbed parameter ensembles as a tool for sampling model uncertainties and making climate projections James Murphy (Met Office) |
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Towards the probabilistic earth-system simulator: a vision for the future of climate Tim Palmer (ECMWF) |
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Some issues in stochastic weather/climate modelling; or how do i use stochastic differential equations to model something real? Cecile Penland (NOAA) |
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Radiation: fast physics with slow consequences in an uncertain atmosphere Robert Pincus (University of Colorado) |
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Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection Bob Plant (University of Reading) |
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The limits of convection parametrization Dave Randall (CSU) |
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Low-noise projections of complex simulator output: A useful tool when checking for code errors Jonathan Rougier (University of Bristol) |
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Uncertainty and complexity in cloud microphysics Axel Seifert (DWD) |
|
|
Tracking down the origin of NWP model uncertainty: coarse-graining studies Glenn Shutts (ECMWF) |
|
|
Local diagnostics to measure the efficiency of the ensemble in representing the error space Istvan Szunyogh (Texas A&M University) |
|
|
Energy and enstrophy cascades in numerical models John Thuburn (University of Exeter) |
|
|
Accounting for model error in 4D-Var Yannick Tremolet (ECMWF) |
|
|
Multi models on seasonal to multi-decadal output statistics Andreas Weigel (MeteoSwiss) |
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Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF) |
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Evaluating methods for representing model error using ensemble data assimilation Jeff Whitaker (NOAA) |
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Ocean model uncertainty in climate prediction Laure Zanna (Oxford) |
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