Linus Magnusson

Senior Scientist
Forecast Department, Evaluation Section, Diagnostics

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Profile
Summary: 

Linus Magnusson obtained his PhD from Stockholm University in 2009 and joined ECMWF shortly after. He started his work on ocean initialisation and ENSO forecasting in the Seasonal forecasting section where he also worked on sea-ice modelling. In 2011 he moved to the Ensemble forecasting section working on diagnostics and has now a similar job the Evaluation section. His research interests includes model climate and variability diagnostics, medium-range forecast error propagation, diagnostics for processes in the Arctic and severe weather such as tropical cyclones.

Professional interests: 
  • Predictability

    • The research focuses on understanding periods of low predictability in the extra-tropics. For such investigations several diagnostic tools are used, such as relaxation experiments that constrain the model inside a specified box. The methods are described in Magnusson (2017).
    • The research was described in a ECMWF web article in 2016.
  • Severe weather evaluation
  • Tropical cyclones
  • Model climate
    • Linus is currently responsible to evaluate the model climate (mean and variability metrics) on the seasonal time-scale for each new model cycle.
  • Arctic processes
    • Linus is Involved in H2020 project APPLICATE, and contribute to the work on diagnostic tools for the Arctic and predictability studies.

 

Career background: 

2005 Master degree Uppsala University

2009 PhD degree Stockholm University

2009- ECMWF

Publications
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
    • Laura Ferranti, Linus Magnusson, Frédéric Vitart, David Richardson (January 2019) A new product to flag up the risk of cold spells in Europe weeks ahead, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 158, pp. 15-20. DOI: 10.21957/k2rlf88oe1
    • Heather Lawrence, Jacky Goddard, irina sandu, Niels Bormann, Peter Bauer, Linus Magnusson (April 2019) An Assessment of the use of observations in the Arctic at ECMWF, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 845. DOI: 10.21957/exlwb4o04
    • Zied Ben Bouallègue, Linus Magnusson, Thomas Haiden, David S. Richardson (March 2019) Monitoring trends in ensemble forecast performance focusing on surface variables and high‐impact events, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3523
    • Linus Magnusson, Jan‐Huey Chen, Shian‐Jiann Lin, Linjiong Zhou, Xi Chen (May 2019) Dependence on initial conditions versus model formulations for medium‐range forecast error variations, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3545
    • Tjernström M., G. Svensson, Linus Magnusson (July 2019) Arctic weather forecasting – in the high Arctic, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 160, pp. 29-33. DOI: 10.21957/b8mt2wsz53
    • Linus Magnusson (October 2019) ECMWF Severe Event Catalogue for Evaluation of Multi-scale Prediction of Extreme Weather, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 851. DOI: 10.21957/i2pbf6pe
    • Jonathan J. Day, Irina Sandu, Linus Magnusson, Mark J. Rodwell, Heather Lawrence, Niels Bormann, Thomas Jung (October 2019) Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 725, pp. 3846–3862. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3673
    • (2019) Advancements in Hurricane Prediction With NOAA's Next-Generation Forecast System, Geophysical Research Letters n. 8, pp. 4495–4501.
    • (2019) An Assessment of the Use of Observations in the Arctic at ECMWF.
    • (2019) Advances in understanding difficult cases of tropical cyclone track forecasts, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review n. 3, pp. 109–122.
    • (2019) ECMWF activities for improved hurricane forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 3, pp. 445–458.
    • (2019) What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences n. 4, pp. 1077–1091.
    • (2019) Monitoring trends in ensemble forecast performance focusing on surface variables and high-impact events, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 721, pp. 1741–1755.
    • (2019) SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system, Geoscientific Model Development n. 3, pp. 1087–1117.
    • (2019) Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall using ECMWF’s System 4, Weather and Forecasting n. 5, pp. 1239–1255.
    • (2019) The October 29, 2018 storm in Northern Italy--An exceptional event and its modeling, Progress in Oceanography, pp. 102178.
    • (2019) Convectively Coupled Equatorial Wave Simulations Using the ECMWF IFS and the NOAA GFS Cumulus Convection Schemes in the NOAA GFS Model, Monthly Weather Review n. 11, pp. 4005–4025.
    • (2019) Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
    • (2019) Current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting: results from a global forecaster survey, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review n. 3, pp. 166–180.
    • (2019) Cross-scale modeling of storm surge, tide, and inundation in Mid-Atlantic Bight and New York City during Hurricane Sandy, 2012, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, pp. 106544.
  • 2018
    • Timothy Stockdale, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Stephanie Johnson, Laura Ferranti, Franco Molteni, Linus Magnusson, Steffen Tietsche, Frédéric Vitart, Damien Decremer, Antje Weisheimer, Christopher D. Roberts, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sarah Keeley, Kristian S. Mogensen, Hao Zuo, Michael Mayer, B.M. Monge-Sanz (November 2018) SEAS5 and the future evolution of the long-range forecast system, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 835. DOI: 10.21957/z3e92di7y
    • Buizza R., Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Andrew Brown, S.J. English, Richard Forbes, Alan J. Geer, Haiden T., Martin Leutbecher, Linus Magnusson, Mark John Rodwell, M. Sleigh, Timothy Stockdale, Frédéric Vitart, Wedi N. (October 2018) The development and evaluation process followed at ECMWF to upgrade the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 829. DOI: 10.21957/xzopnhty9
    • (2018) The North Atlantic waveguide and downstream impact experiment, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 8, pp. 1607–1637.
    • (2018) The 2013/14 Thames Basin Floods: Do Improved Meteorological Forecasts Lead to More Skillful Hydrological Forecasts at Seasonal Time Scales?, Journal of Hydrometeorology n. 6, pp. 1059–1075.
    • (2018) How far in advance can we predict changes in large-scale flow leading to severe cold conditions over Europe?, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 715, pp. 1788–1802.
    • (2018) An atmospheric dynamics perspective on the amplification and propagation of forecast error in numerical weather prediction models: A case study, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 717, pp. 2577–2591.
    • (2018) The development and evaluation process followed at ECMWF to upgrade the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).
    • (2018) TROPICAL CYCLONES IN GFDL FVGFS--IMPACTS OF DYCORE, PHYSICS, AND INITIAL CONDITIONS, 33rd Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc. URL https://ams. confex. com/ams/33HURRICANE/webprogram/Paper339827. html.
  • 2017
    • Linus Magnusson (2017) Diagnostic methods for understanding the origin of forecast errors, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 796. DOI: 10.21957/v3z8tw3ge
    • (2017) Diagnostic methods for understanding the origin of forecast errors, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 706, pp. 2129–2142.
    • D.L. Bergman, Linus Magnusson, J. Nilsson, Frédéric Vitart (2017) Forecasting tropical cyclone landfall using ECMWF's seasonal forecasts from System 4, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 811. DOI: 10.21957/lg4nj4d1o
    • K.S. Mogensen, Linus Magnusson, Jean Bidlot (2017) Tropical Cyclone Sensitivity to Ocean Coupling, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 794. DOI: 10.21957/dha6hjg4f
    • I. Polichtchouk, Robin Hogan, T.G. Shepherd, Peter Bechtold, Timothy Stockdale, S. Malardel, Sarah-Jane Lock, Linus Magnusson (2017) What influences the middle atmosphere circulation in the IFS?, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 809. DOI: 10.21957/mfsnfv15o
    • (2017) Scale-dependent estimates of the growth of forecast uncertainties in a global prediction system, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography n. 1, pp. 1287492.
    • (2017) Tropical cyclone sensitivity to ocean coupling in the ECMWF coupled model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans n. 5, pp. 4392–4412.
    • (2017) Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 707, pp. 2315–2339.
    • (2017) Forecasting tropical cyclone landfall using ECMWF’s seasonal forecasts from System 4, October 2017.
    • (2017) What influences the middle atmosphere circulation in the ifs?.
  • 2016
    • (2016) Aspects of ECMWF model performance in polar areas, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 695, pp. 583–596.
    • (2016) Diagnosis of the source and evolution of medium-range forecast errors for extratropical cyclone Joachim, Weather and Forecasting n. 4, pp. 1197–1214.
    • (2016) Sensitivity of the ECMWF model to semi-Lagrangian departure point iterations, Monthly Weather Review n. 9, pp. 3233–3250.
  • 2015
  • 2014
    • Frédéric Vitart, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Roberto Buizza, Laura Ferranti, Sarah Keeley, Linus Magnusson, Franco Molteni, Antje Weisheimer (October 2014) Sub-seasonal predictions, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 738. DOI: 10.21957/6lw4xoik8
    • Linus Magnusson, David Richardson, Thomas Haiden (September 2014) Verification of extreme weather events: Discrete predictands, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 731. DOI: 10.21957/1iql31n2c
    • Thomas Haiden, Linus Magnusson, Ivan Tsonevsky, Fredrik Wetterhall, L. Alfieri, Florian Pappenberger, Patricia de Rosnay, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Gianpaolo Balsamo, C. Albergel, Richard Forbes, Timothy Hewson, S. Malardel, David Richardson (June 2014) ECMWF forecast performance during the June 2013 flood in Central Europe, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 723, pp. 34. DOI: 10.21957/4p9ebc2r3
    • (2014) Global meteorological drought--Part 2: Seasonal forecasts, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 7, pp. 2669–2678.
    • (2014) Evaluation of medium-range forecasts for Hurricane Sandy, Monthly Weather Review n. 5, pp. 1962–1981.
    • (2014) ECMWF forecast performance during the June 2013 flood in Central Europe.
    • (2014) Verification of extreme weather events: Discrete predictands.
    • (2014) Sub-seasonal predictions.
  • 2013
    • Linus Magnusson, A.J. Thorpe, Massimo Bonavita, S.T.K. Lang, A. McNally, Nils Wedi (April 2013) Evaluation of forecasts for hurricane Sandy, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 699, pp. 28. DOI: 10.21957/b5nhw6qe1
    • Peter A. E. M. Janssen, Ø. Breivik, Kristian S. Mogensen, Frédéric Vitart, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Jean Bidlot, Sarah Keeley, Martin Leutbecher, Linus Magnusson, Franco Molteni (November 2013) Air-sea interaction and surface waves, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 712, pp. 34. DOI: 10.21957/0kg73joh
    • Peter Bauer, Anton Beljaars, Maike Ahlgrimm, Peter Bechtold, Jean Bidlot, Massimo Bonavita, Alessio Bozzo, Richard Forbes, E. V. Hólm, Martin Leutbecher, Philippe Lopez, Linus Magnusson, F. Prates, Mark John Rodwell, irina sandu, A. Untch, Frédéric Vitart (July 2013) Model Cycle 38r2: Components and Performance, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 704, pp. 58. DOI: 10.21957/xc1r0lj6l
    • (2013) Air-sea interaction and surface waves.
    • (2013) The 2010--2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products, International Journal of Climatology n. 7, pp. 1720–1729.
    • (2013) Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors, Climate dynamics n. 9-10, pp. 2393–2409.
    • (2013) The Indian Ocean: The region of highest skill worldwide in decadal climate prediction, Journal of Climate n. 3, pp. 726–739.
    • (2013) Characteristics of occasional poor medium-range weather forecasts for Europe, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 9, pp. 1393–1405.
    • (2013) On the dependence of ENSO simulation on the coupled model mean state, Climate dynamics n. 5-6, pp. 1509–1525.
    • (2013) Factors influencing skill improvements in the ECMWF forecasting system, Monthly Weather Review n. 9, pp. 3142–3153.
    • (2013) Evaluation of forecasts for hurricane Sandy.
    • (2013) Model Cycle 38r2: Components and Performance.
  • 2012
  • 2011
    • Franco Molteni, Timothy Stockdale, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Roberto Buizza, Laura Ferranti, Linus Magnusson, Kristian S. Mogensen, T.N. Palmer, Frédéric Vitart (November 2011) The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4), ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 656, pp. 49. DOI: 10.21957/4nery093i
    • Linus Magnusson, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Franco Molteni (December 2011) On the dependence of ENSO simulation on the coupled model mean state, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 658, pp. 27. DOI: 10.21957/hqo2435ou
    • (2011) The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4).
    • (2011) The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4).
    • (2011) Decadal climate predictions with the ECMWF coupled system.
    • (2011) The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.
  • 2009
    • (2009) Estimating trajectory uncertainties due to flow dependent errors in the atmospheric analysis, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics n. 22, pp. 8857–8867.
    • (2009) Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography n. 2, pp. 194–209.
    • (2009) Sampling uncertainties in ensemble weather forecasting.
  • 2008
    • (2008) Comparison between singular vectors and breeding vectors as initial perturbations for the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Monthly Weather Review n. 11, pp. 4092–4104.
    • (2008) Independent estimations of the asymptotic variability in an ensemble forecast system, Monthly Weather Review n. 11, pp. 4105–4112.
    • (2008) Initial state perturbations in ensemble forecasting, Nonlinear processes in Geophysics n. 5, pp. 751–759.
  • (submitted)
    • ((submitted)) Dependence on initial conditions versus model formulations for medium-range forecast error variations, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.