Senior ScientistResearch Department, Earth System Predictability Section, Long Rangepage tabs Profile Summary: Antje is a senior research scientist interested in model-based weather and climate forecasts and the uncertainties associated with them. Professional interests: Predictability in the Earth System on a range of time scales from days to weeks, months, seasons and longer Model uncertainties in weather and climate forecasts Seamless prediction of weather and climate Career background: PhD in Atmospheric Physics, University of Potsdam, Germany, 2000 London School of Economics and Political Sciences (Marie-Curie Fellowship), 2002-2003 Meteorological Institute of the Free University Berlin, Assistant Professor, 2003-2005 Predictability Section at ECMWF, since 2005 (60%) University of Oxford, Physics Department, Senior NCAS Research Fellow, since 2011 (40%) External recognitions: Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and member of the German Meteorological Society Associate Editor for Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Editorial Board Member of Nature Scientific Reports Contributing Author and Expert Reviewer of the AR5 IPCC report Senior NCAS Research Fellow at the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics (AOPP) institute, Oxford University Research Fellow at Wolfson College, Oxford PI and co-PI on a number of national and international grants including EUCP, SPECS, EUCLEIA, IMPETUS, SummerTIME (through Oxford) Finalist for L'Oreal Women in Science Award Publications 2020Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O’Reilly, Antje Weisheimer (March 2020) Constraining Climate Projections using Decadal Predictions. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2618 Christopher O'Reilly, Daniel Befort, Antje Weisheimer (March 2020) Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5852 Antje Weisheimer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Tim Stockdale (March 2020) Multi-decadal variability in long-range ENSO predictions (SEAS5-20C). DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7763 Antje Weisheimer (April 2020) Comment on transparency of data used in this study. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2020-69-SC2 Joshua Dorrington, Isla Finney, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer (October 2020) Beyond skill scores: exploring sub‐seasonal forecast value through a case‐study of French month‐ahead energy prediction, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3863 Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer, David MacLeod, Daniel J. Befort, Tim Palmer (October 2020) Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 733, pp. 4055–4066. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3890 Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer (September 2020) Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions, Geophysical Research Letters n. 18. DOI: 10.1029/2020GL087900 Sarah Sparrow, Andrew Bowery, Glenn D. Carver, Marcus O. Köhler, Pirkka Ollinaho, Florian Pappenberger, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer (September 2020) OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2020-217 Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, Antje Weisheimer (November 2020) Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data, Earth System Dynamics. DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020 Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer (December 2020) Representing model uncertainty in multi‐annual predictions, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090059 Christopher D. Roberts, Antje Weisheimer, Stephanie Johnson, Timothy Stockdale, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Philip Browne, Andrew Dawson, Martin Leutbecher, Frédéric Vitart (January 2020) Reduced-resolution ocean configurations for efficient testing with the ECMWF coupled model, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 858. DOI: 10.21957/6fz18mn9r Kevin Hodges, Daniel Befort, Antje Weisheimer (March 2020) Tropical Cyclones in European Seasonal Forecast Models. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2552 Joshua Dorrington, Isla Finney, Antje Weisheimer, Tim Palmer (March 2020) Quantifying the usefulness of European subseasonal forecasts using a real-world energy-sector framework. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5358 Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, Antje Weisheimer (March 2020) Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data. DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-6 Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, Antje Weisheimer (March 2020) Supplementary material to "Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data". DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-6-supplement 2019Antje Weisheimer, Damien Decremer, David MacLeod, Christopher O'Reilly, Tim N. Stockdale, Stephanie Johnson, Tim N. Palmer (September 2019) How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. S1, pp. 140–159. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3446 F. Hansen, T. Kruschke, R. J. Greatbatch, A. Weisheimer (January 2019) Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms, Geophysical Research Letters n. 1, pp. 365–373. DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079415 Tess Parker, Tim Woollings, Antje Weisheimer, Chris O'Reilly, Laura Baker, Len Shaffrey (August 2019) Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective, Geophysical Research Letters n. 16, pp. 10159–10167. DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084402 Christopher H. O'Reilly, Tim Woollings, Laure Zanna, Antje Weisheimer (November 2019) An Interdecadal Shift of the Extratropical Teleconnection From the Tropical Pacific During Boreal Summer, Geophysical Research Letters n. 22, pp. 13379–13388. DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084079 2018Timothy Stockdale, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Stephanie Johnson, Laura Ferranti, Franco Molteni, Linus Magnusson, Steffen Tietsche, Frédéric Vitart, Damien Decremer, Antje Weisheimer, Christopher D. Roberts, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sarah Keeley, Kristian S. Mogensen, Hao Zuo, Michael Mayer, B.M. Monge-Sanz (November 2018) SEAS5 and the future evolution of the long-range forecast system, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 835. DOI: 10.21957/z3e92di7y Befort D.J., Wild S., Knight J.R., Lockwood J.F., Thornton H.E., Hermanson L., Bett P.E., Weisheimer A., Leckebusch G.C. (2018) Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3406 Baker L.H., Shaffrey L.C., Sutton R.T., Weisheimer A., Scaife A.A. (2018) An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts, Geophysical Research Letters n. 15, pp. 7808-7817. DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078838 Palmer T.N., Weisheimer A. (2018) A simple pedagogical model linking initial-value reliability with trustworthiness in the forced climate response, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 3, pp. 605-614. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0240.1 Juricke S., MacLeod D., Weisheimer A., Zanna L., Palmer T.N. (2018) Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 715, pp. 1947-1964. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3394 Parker T., Woollings T., Weisheimer A. (2018) Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 716, pp. 2358-2379. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3391 O'Reilly C.H., Woollings T., Zanna L., Weisheimer A. (2018) The impact of tropical precipitation on summertime euro-Atlantic circulation via a circumglobal wave train, Journal of Climate n. 16, pp. 6481-6504. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0451.1 Manzanas R., Lucero A., Weisheimer A., Gutiérrez J.M. (2018) Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?, Climate Dynamics n. 3-4, pp. 1161-1176. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3668-z MacLeod D., O'Reilly C., Palmer T., Weisheimer A. (2018) Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics, Atmospheric Science Letters n. 5. DOI: 10.1002/asl.815 Ineson S., Balmaseda M.A., Davey M.K., Decremer D., Dunstone N.J., Gordon M., Ren H.-L., Scaife A.A., Weisheimer A. (2018) Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015, Scientific Reports n. 1. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-29130-1 Alessandri A., Felice M.D., Catalano F., Lee J.-Y., Wang B., Lee D.Y., Yoo J.-H., Weisheimer A. (2018) Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users, Climate Dynamics n. 7-8, pp. 2719-2738. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3766-y O'Reilly C.H., Weisheimer A., Woollings T., Gray L.J., MacLeod D. (2018) The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3413 Beverley J.D., Woolnough S.J., Baker L.H., Johnson S.J., Weisheimer A. (2018) The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4371-4 2017Weisheimer A., Schaller N., O'Reilly C., MacLeod D.A., Palmer T. (2017) Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 703, pp. 917-926. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2976 Subramanian A., Weisheimer A., Palmer T., Vitart F., Bechtold P. (2017) Impact of stochastic physics on tropical precipitation in the coupled ECMWF model, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 703, pp. 852-865. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2970 Watson P.A.G., Berner J., Corti S., Davini P., von Hardenberg J., Sanchez C., Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N. (2017) The impact of stochastic physics on tropical rainfall variability in global climate models on daily to weekly time scales, Journal of Geophysical Research n. 11, pp. 5738-5762. DOI: 10.1002/2016JD026386 Leutbecher M., Lock S.-J., Ollinaho P., Lang S.T.K., Balsamo G., Bechtold P., Bonavita M., Christensen H.M., Diamantakis M., Dutra E., English S., Fisher M., Forbes R.M., Goddard J., Haiden T., Hogan R.J., Juricke S., Lawrence H., MacLeod D., Magnusson L., Malardel S., Massart S., Sandu I., Smolarkiewicz P.K., Subramanian A., Vitart F., Wedi N., Weisheimer A. (2017) Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 707, pp. 2315-2339. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3094 Berner J., Achatz U., Batté L., Bengtsson L., De La Cámara A., Christensen H.M., Colangeli M., Coleman D.R.B., Crommelin D., Dolaptchiev S.I., Franzke C.L.E., Friederichs P., Imkeller P., Järvinen H., Juricke S., Kitsios V., Lott F., Lucarini V., Mahajaajaajan S., Palmer T.N., Penland C., Sakradzijaja M., Von Storch J.-S., Weisheimer A., Weniger M., Williams P.D., Yano J.-I. (2017) Stochastic parameterization toward a new view of weather and climate models, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 3, pp. 565-587. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00268.1 O'Reilly C.H., Heatley J., MacLeod D., Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N., Schaller N., Woollings T. (2017) Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century, Geophysical Research Letters n. 11, pp. 5729-5738. DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073736 Davini P., Von Hardenberg J., Corti S., Christensen H.M., Juricke S., Subramanian A., Watson P.A.G., Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N. (2017) Climate SPHINX: Evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model, Geoscientific Model Development n. 3, pp. 1383-1402. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-1383-2017 Hansen F., Greatbatch R.J., Gollan G., Jung T., Weisheimer A. (2017) Remote control of North Atlantic Oscillation predictability via the stratosphere, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 703, pp. 706-719. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2958 2016Macleod D.A., Cloke H.L., Pappenberger F., Weisheimer A. (2016) Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 694, pp. 79-90. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2631 Schaller N., Kay A.L., Lamb R., Massey N.R., Van Oldenborgh G.J., Otto F.E.L., Sparrow S.N., Vautard R., Yiou P., Ashpole I., Bowery A., Crooks S.M., Haustein K., Huntingford C., Ingram W.J., Jones R.G., Legg T., Miller J., Skeggs J., Wallom D., Weisheimer A., Wilson S., Stott P.A., Allen M.R. (2016) Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts, Nature Climate Change n. 6, pp. 627-634. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2927 MacLeod D., Cloke H., Pappenberger F., Weisheimer A. (2016) Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 7, pp. 2737-2743. DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016 Orsolini Y.J., Senan R., Vitart F., Balsamo G., Weisheimer A., Doblas-Reyes F.J. (2016) Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010, Climate Dynamics n. 3-4, pp. 1325-1334. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2903-8 Dell'Aquila A., Corti S., Weisheimer A., Hersbach H., Peubey C., Poli P., Berrisford P., Dee D., Simmons A. (2016) Benchmarking Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability in centennial reanalysis and numerical simulations, Geophysical Research Letters n. 10, pp. 5442-5449. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068829 Senan R., Orsolini Y.J., Weisheimer A., Vitart F., Balsamo G., Stockdale T.N., Dutra E., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Basang D. (2016) Impact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts, Climate Dynamics, pp. 1-17. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-2993-y Matsueda M., Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N. (2016) Calibrating climate change time-slice projections with estimates of seasonal forecast reliability, Journal of Climate n. 10, pp. 3831-3840. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0087.1 Paolo Davini, Jost von Hardenberg, Susanna Corti, Hannah M. Christensen, Stephan Juricke, Aneesh Subramanian, Peter A. G. Watson, Antje Weisheimer, Tim N. Palmer (June 2016) Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in climate simulations. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2016-115 Dave MacLeod, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Antje Weisheimer (February 2016) Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. DOI: 10.5194/hess-2016-28 Dave MacLeod, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Antje Weisheimer (February 2016) Supplementary material to "Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach". DOI: 10.5194/hess-2016-28-supplement Andrejczuk M., Cooper F.C., Juricke S., Palmer T.N., Weisheimer A., Zanna L. (2016) Oceanic stochastic parameterizations in a seasonal forecast system, Monthly Weather Review n. 5, pp. 1867-1875. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0245.1 Watson P.A.G., Weisheimer A., Knight J.R., Palmer T.N. (2016) The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme Northern Hemisphere winter of 2013/2014, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres n. 4, pp. 1698-1714. DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024048 2015Corti S., Palmer T., Balmaseda M., Weisheimer A., Drijfhout S., Dunstone N., Hazeleger W., Kröger J., Pohlmann H., Smith D., Von Storch J.-S., Wouters B. (2015) Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment, Journal of Climate n. 11, pp. 4454-4470. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1 Shi W., Schaller N., Macleod D., Palmer T.N., Weisheimer A. (2015) Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability, Geophysical Research Letters n. 5, pp. 1554-1559. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062829 Shi W., N. Schaller, D. MacLeod, T.N. Palmer, Antje Weisheimer (March 2015) Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 751. DOI: 10.21957/ghdfifv7 MacLeod D.A., Hannah L. Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Antje Weisheimer (August 2015) Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 761. DOI: 10.21957/mxwgvn79n 2014Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anna Agusti-Panareda, C. Albergel, Anton Beljaars, Souhail Boussetta, Emanuel Dutra, T. Komori, S.T.K. Lang, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Florian Pappenberger, Patricia de Rosnay, irina sandu, Nils Wedi, Antje Weisheimer, Fredrik Wetterhall, Ervin Zsoter (October 2014) Representing the Earth surfaces in the Integrated Forecasting System: Recent advances and future challenges, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 729. DOI: 10.21957/tp28b09ds Antje Weisheimer, S Corti, T.N. Palmer, Frédéric Vitart (February 2014) Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parameterisations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 720, pp. 26. DOI: 10.21957/4nkt0c86t Frédéric Vitart, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Roberto Buizza, Laura Ferranti, Sarah Keeley, Linus Magnusson, Franco Molteni, Antje Weisheimer (October 2014) Sub-seasonal predictions, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 738. DOI: 10.21957/6lw4xoik8 Antje Weisheimer, T.N. Palmer (April 2014) On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 722, pp. 17. DOI: 10.21957/ku6twzpsk Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N. (2014) On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts, Journal of the Royal Society Interface n. 96. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2013.1162 Weisheimer A., Corti S., Palmer T., Vitart F. (2014) Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences n. 2018. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2013.0290 2013Orsolini Y.J., Senan R., Balsamo G., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Vitart F., Weisheimer A., Carrasco A., Benestad R.E. (2013) Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts, Climate Dynamics n. 7-8, pp. 1969-1982. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1782-0 Bindoff N.L., Durack P.J., Slater A., Cameron-Smith P., Chikamoto Y., Clifton O., Durack P.J., Ginoux P., Holland M., Holmes C., Infanti J., Jacob D., John J., Knutson T., Lawrence D., Lu J., Murphy D., Naik V., Robock A., Slater A., Vavrus S., Cameron-Smith P., Chikamoto Y., Ishii M., Corti S., Fichefet T., García-Serrano J., Guemas V., Rodrigues L., Gray L., Hawkins E., Smith D., Stevenson D.S., Voulgarakis A., Weisheimer A., Wild O., Woollings T., Young P., Guemas V., Krinner G., Klimont Z., Klimont Z., Lu J., Naik V., Sedláček J., van den Hurk B., van Noije T., Voulgarakis A., Weisheimer A. (2013) Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability, Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 953-1028. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023 2012Corti S., Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Magnusson L. (2012) Reliability of decadal predictions, Geophysical Research Letters n. 21. DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053354 2011Palmer T.N., Weisheimer A. (2011) Diagnosing the causes of bias in climate models - why is it so hard?, Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics n. 2-3, pp. 351-365. DOI: 10.1080/03091929.2010.547194 Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N., Doblas-Reyes F.J. (2011) Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles, Geophysical Research Letters n. 16. DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048123 Weisheimer A., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Jung T., Palmer T.N. (2011) On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe, Geophysical Research Letters n. 5. DOI: 10.1029/2010GL046455 Alessandri A., Borrelli A., Navarra A., Arribas A., Déqué M., Rogel P., Weisheimer A. (2011) Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ENSEMBLES multimodel seasonal forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER, Monthly Weather Review n. 2, pp. 581-607. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3417.1 Doblas-Reyes F.J., Balmaseda M.A., Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N. (2011) Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres n. 19. DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015394 Shutts G., Martin Leutbecher, Antje Weisheimer, Timothy Stockdale, L. Isaksen, Massimo Bonavita (2011) Representing model uncertainty: stochastic parametrizations at ECMWF, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 129, pp. 19-24. DOI: 10.21957/fbqmkhv7 2010Antje Weisheimer, F. Doblas-Reyes, Tim Palmer (2010) Model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasting – insight from the ENSEMBLES project, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 122, pp. 21-26. DOI: 10.21957/5hayrg0p F. Doblas-Reyes, Antje Weisheimer, T.N. Palmer, J. M. Murphy, D.M. Smith (April 2010) Forecast quality assessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 621, pp. 45. DOI: 10.21957/l0x9tmf12 F. Doblas-Reyes, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Antje Weisheimer, T.N. Palmer (October 2010) Decadal climate prediction with the ECMWF coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 633, pp. 24. DOI: 10.21957/ovydvr4t7 2009Weisheimer A., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Palmer T.N., Alessandri A., Arribas A., Déqué M., Keenlyside N., MacVean M., Navarra A., Rogel P. (2009) ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions - Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, Geophysical Research Letters n. 21. DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040896 Palmer T.N., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Weisheimer A., Rodwell M.J. (2009) Reply, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 10, pp. 1551-1554. DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2916.1 Doblas-Reyes F.J., Weisheimer A., Déqué A., Keenlyside N., McVean M., Murphy J.M., Rogel P., Smith D., Palmer T.N. (2009) Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 643, pp. 1538-1559. DOI: 10.1002/qj.464 T.N. Palmer, Roberto Buizza, F. Doblas-Reyes, T. Jung, Martin Leutbecher, G.J. Shutts, M. Steinheimer, Antje Weisheimer (October 2009) Stochastic parametrization and model uncertainty, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 598, pp. 42. DOI: 10.21957/ps8gbwbdv D.L.T. Anderson, F. Doblas-Reyes, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Antje Weisheimer (May 2009) Decadal variability: processes, predictability and prediction, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 591, pp. 47. DOI: 10.21957/hlq94gwc 2008F. Doblas-Reyes, Antje Weisheimer, M. Deque, N. Keenlyside, M. McVean, J. M. Murphy, P. Rogel, D.M. Smith, T.N. Palmer (November 2008) Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts., ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 560, pp. 32. DOI: 10.21957/j5dg4fi9 Palmer T.N., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Weisheimer A., Rodwell M.J. (2008) Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 4, pp. 459-470. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459 Berner J., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Palmer T.N., Shutts G., Weisheimer A. (2008) Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences n. 1875, pp. 2561-2579. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0033 2007Judd K., Smith L.A., Weisheimer A. (2007) How good is an ensemble an capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 626 A, pp. 1309-1325. DOI: 10.1002/qj.111 Vitart F., Huddleston M.R., Déqué M., Peake D., Palmer T.N., Stockdale T.N., Davey M.K., Ineson S., Weisheimer A. (2007) Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP, Geophysical Research Letters n. 16. DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030740 Antje Weisheimer, F. Doblas-Reyes, P. Rogel, Eduardo Damasio Da Costa, N. Keenlyside, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, J. M. Murphy, D.M. Smith, M. Collins, B. Bhaskaran, T.N. Palmer (March 2007) Initialisation strategies for decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2005 period within the ENSEMBLES project, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 521, pp. 10. DOI: 10.21957/ay51xwfz J.-J. Morcrette, Peter Bechtold, Anton Beljaars, Angela Benedetti, Axel Bonet, F. Doblas-Reyes, J. Hague, M. Hamrud, J. Haseler, J. Kaiser, Martin Leutbecher, G. Mozdzynski, Miha Razinger, Deborah Salmond, S. Serrar, Martin Suttie, A.M. Tompkins, A. Untch, Antje Weisheimer (October 2007) Recent advances in radiation transfer parametrizations, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 539, pp. 50. DOI: 10.21957/ubx8vhd6q 2006Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N. (2006) Erratum: "Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming" (Geophysical Research Letters (2005) vol. 32 10.1029/2005GL023365), Geophysical Research Letters n. 7. DOI: 10.1029/2006GL025821 2005Weisheimer A., Smith L.A., Judd K. (2005) A new view of seasonal forecast skill: Bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts, Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography n. 3, pp. 265-279. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00106.x Weisheimer A., Palmer T.N. (2005) Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming, Geophysical Research Letters n. 20, pp. 1-5. DOI: 10.1029/2005GL023365 Palmer T.N., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Hagedorn R., Weisheimer A. (2005) Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: From basics to applications, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences n. 1463, pp. 1991-1998. DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1750 2004Judd K., Smith L., Weisheimer A. (2004) Gradient free descent: Shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative information, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena n. 3-4, pp. 153-166. DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2003.10.011 Kunitsyn V., Zakharov V., Dethloff K., Weisheimer A., Gerding M., Neuber R., Rinke A., Hebestadt I. (2004) Improved radio occultation sounding of the Arctic atmosphere using simulations with a high resolution atmospheric model, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth n. 2-3, pp. 277-286. DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2004.01.012 2003Weisheimer A., Kurgansky M.V., Dethloff K., Handorf D. (2003) Extratropical low-frequency variability in a three-level quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model with different spectral resolution, Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres n. 5. 2001Weisheimer A., Handorf D., Dethloff K. (2001) On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models, Atmospheric Science Letters n. 1-4. DOI: 10.1006/asle.2001.0034 2000Mokhov I.I., Eliseev A.V., Handorf D., Petukhov V.K., Dethloff K., Weisheimer A., Khvorost'yanov D.V. (2000) North Atlantic oscillation: Diagnosis and simulation of decadal variability and its long-period evolution, Izvestiya - Atmospheric and Ocean Physics n. 5, pp. 555-565. Rex M., Dethloff K., Handorf D., Herber A., Lehmann R., Neuber R., Notholt J., Rinke A., von der Gathen P., Weisheimer A., Gernandt H. (2000) Arctic and Antarctic ozone layer observations: Chemical and dynamical aspects of variability and long-term changes in the polar stratosphere, Polar Research n. 2, pp. 193-204. 1999Handorf D., Petoukhov V.K., Dethloff K., Eliseev A.V., Weisheimer A., Mokhov I.I. (1999) Decadal climate variability in a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model of moderate complexity, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres n. D22, pp. 27253-27275. 1998Dethloff K., Weisheimer A., Rinke A., Handorf D., Kurgansky M.V., Jansen W., Maaß P., Hupfer P. (1998) Climate variability in a nonlinear atmosphere-like dynamical system, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres n. D20, pp. 25957-25966.
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